Totetape
Vol. I · No. 50 Sunday, 27 September 2026 03:26 UTC Published from 3,329 recorded races
TRACKS 114RACES 3,329ODDS TICKS 3,695,255POOL ROWS 1,969,455EXOTIC ROWS 5,204,724OFFICIAL 1,555WOT 6 5WOT 5 6WOT 4 4-5WOT 3 7WOT 2 18WOT 1 4CHD 11 13CHD 10 7CHD 9 15CHD 8 5CHD 7 11CHD 6 8CHD 5 60CHD 4 7-2
House portfolio Top-ranked strategies, picked the morning of the race, one flat unit 30 days  ·  All time
Nothing has settled. So there is no number.

Break-even axis only. No bet has settled, so no equity curve is drawn. Membership is re-selected nightly on the all-time record; the record shown will contain only bets placed after selection, so it is out-of-sample by construction.

Weekly notes

When a control wins loudly

Seven days through 31 August 2026

A spectacular control result, a long-priced show runner, and an active family that lost more ground.

Lead lesson

A control can still make noise

Belle Cause turned the week’s steam-follow control observation into its loudest payoff. That does not rescue a deliberately losing control; it shows how one race can make variance look persuasive.

Hollywood Casino At Charles Town Races, 28 August 2026, race 2: Belle Cause, program 3, finished first.

Displayed odds 10–1; final odds 35.3–1; payoff 36.30 on 1.00. Result win. Race status official.

Steam Follow — Must-Lose Control: 1,471 settled, -16.9% return. Strategy status Control.

Dark horse

Emmyaswifty found the frame

The bridge-jumper fade family recorded a winning show observation when Emmyaswifty ran third at Parx. This is a strategy under test, and one result is a tape moment rather than a verdict.

ParxRacing at Philly, 26 August 2026, race 4: Emmyaswifty, program 6, finished third.

Displayed odds 13–1; final odds 23.9–1; payoff 2.10 on 1.00. Result win. Race status official.

Bridge-Jumper Fade — Base: 66 settled, -33.9% return. Strategy status Active.

Cooling watch

Exacta divergence cooled again

The family returned less of each paper unit than it did in the prior window, while its longer record also remained below break-even. This active family is a strategy under test; cooling describes the comparison, not a forecast.

Exacta-Implied Divergence — Base for S9 win. Cooling week over week. Strategy status Active.

Current: 43 settled, -47.6% return; Prior: 25 settled, -26.6% return; All time: 105 settled, -42.5% return.

Late settlements can revise this comparison. Current window: 923 pending, 76 nonofficial races; prior window: 927 pending, 72 nonofficial races.

Read the full weekly note and evidence ledger

The pool it selects from — not a benchmark, the denominator

-20.5%
−150%Break-even+150%

All 133 strategies ever run, including 0 retired, pooled over 4,121 settled bets. Retired strategies stay in this figure and stay browsable, so weak experiments do not quietly leave the evidence.

Trending

Bridge-Jumper Fade — Base +9  ·  s6-bridgejump-base variant 1 +9  ·  s6-bridgejump-base variant 2 +9  ·  s6-bridgejump-base variant 4 +8  ·  s6-bridgejump-base variant 18 +3

Leaderboard

#Strategy Return95% interval n7d
#Strategy · return Second line of each row: 95% interval, n, 7d move
Win cohort
1 s9-exacta-implied-base variant 8 +20 variants +50.3%-62.2% to +162.8%15 +2
16 Back the Drifter — Base +20 variants -100.0%-100.0% to -100.0%5 +1
— Early Plunge Fade — Base +20 variants —collecting evidence0 —

3 families, 63 strategies. Near-identical variants share one line — twenty rows off the same six bets are not twenty pieces of evidence.

Place cohort
— Dr Z Place — Base +20 variants —collecting evidence0 —

1 family, 21 strategies. Near-identical variants share one line — twenty rows off the same six bets are not twenty pieces of evidence.

Show cohort
1 s6-bridgejump-base variant 5 +20 variants -17.2%-52.8% to +18.5%29 +2
— Dr Z Show — Base +20 variants —collecting evidence0 —

2 families, 42 strategies. Near-identical variants share one line — twenty rows off the same six bets are not twenty pieces of evidence.

Retired (0)

No strategy has retired yet. When one does it keeps its record, its reason, and its lineage on this page — the promise is stated before it costs anything.